Expect another wet winter like last year
- col-conservation-corner
- October 8, 2022
- 498
As we are now into October, it is time to start thinking about what to expect for weather this winter. In addition to the snow Tuscarawas County experiences each winter, January through March have historically brought the threat of flooding as well.
Some of the more notable floods in recent decades have occurred in the winters of 2005, 2008, 2012, 2018 and 2022.
While there are many sources of predictions and forecasts, I recommend people monitor the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov, which provides seasonal forecasts.
Looking at the current prediction for January through March, Tuscarawas County will likely see above-average precipitation. This would seem to be a “broken record” forecast as we have had above-average precipitation in many recent years.
One may ask why we have so many wet winters anymore? The main reason for this is the continuation of La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. La Nina is a term meteorologists use when ocean waters off of the coast of South America are colder than normal, and we have seen La Nina conditions for the past two years.
When you have colder ocean waters off of South America, it changes the direction of the Jet Stream, which is the stream of fast winds a few miles up that push storms across the United States.
Normally in winter, the Jet Stream dips south of Ohio, and winters tend to be cold and dry. With the colder waters off of South America during La Nina, the Jet Steam pushes a bit north, landing right above us.
This causes storms that move across the country to track right through Ohio instead of heading south of us. This allows us to have more rain than normal, and it also will allow temperatures to get a bit warmer than normal.
This is because warm fronts tend to creep into Ohio a day or two before each of those storm systems. Winters are notoriously difficult for long-range forecasts to predict, but if historical trends mean anything, we can most likely expect another wet winter like last year.
Alex McCarthy is a meteorologist and secretary of the Tuscarawas County Soil and Water Conservation District.